How much will stock market go up in 2024?
The S&P 500 boasts a 10% gain so far in 2024 – that's about in line with its historical average for a full year.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
As a result, they expect the S&P 500 to grow by an average of 10-12% per year over the next five years. Ultimately, the future performance of the S&P 500 is uncertain. However, by considering the factors that are likely to affect the market, investors can make informed decisions about their investment strategies.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Investing in an S&P 500 ETF like SPY is generally considered a solid long-term investment strategy, and 2024 could be a good year to invest if you're looking for broad market exposure.
Tech continues to dominate in 2024. As businesses expand digital capabilities, demand soars for everything from cybersecurity to cloud services and data analytics. 5G infrastructure is the backbone supporting much of this tech-fueled future, delivering internet speeds 10 times faster than 4G.
The updated Dow Jones price prediction for the next 5 years is for the index to trade around 45,000 points. Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade at 39071 points in the first month of 2024 and and advance up to 48,000 points by the end of the year.
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
Dow 40,000 A Long Time Coming
All told, analysts actually think the Dow is going to blow way past Dow 40,000 in 12 months time. If all 30 stocks in the average do what's expected, the Dow will be worth 42,233.32 in 12 months. That's roughly 7% higher than it closed on Friday.
What year will stocks go back up?
The strong start could set up the stock market for a solid 2024, when considering almost 75 years of data.
Imagine you wish to amass $3000 monthly from your investments, amounting to $36,000 annually. If you park your funds in a savings account offering a 2% annual interest rate, you'd need to inject roughly $1.8 million into the account.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
These charts of bear and bull markets in the S&P 500 since 1932 illustrate this well—there have 12 bear markets compared to 14 bull markets, but the duration of the bear markets is much, much shorter: The bear markets are just 25 months (around 2 years) long in average, compared to an average length of 59 months ( ...
With potential economic threats remaining and market uncertainties looming in 2024, investors may still need to have patience before a truly durable bull market can get underway. But that doesn't mean there aren't any opportunities today.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
U.S. Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds
Historically, the U.S. has always paid its debts, which helps to ensure that Treasurys are the lowest-risk investments you can own. There are a wide variety of maturities available. Treasury bills, also referred to T-bills, have maturities of four, eight, 13, 26 and 52 weeks.
- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B)
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
- Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)
What stocks are hot for 2024?
| Stock | 2024 performance through Feb. 29 |
|---|---|
| Nature Wood Group Ltd. (NWGL) | 140.9% |
| Sana Biotechnology Inc. (SANA) | 146.1% |
| Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 204.7% |
| Vera Therapeutics Inc. (VERA) | 206.1% |
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Investors are likely drawn to the stock market now as it continues to hit fresh highs. After the market tanked in 2022, it came roaring back last year. The S&P 500 soared 24% in 2023, and it started to hit fresh, all-time highs throughout the month of January this year.
If you have individual stocks that appear to be underperforming (consistently), it may be time to cut your losses before those losses stack up even higher. However, if you believe the market will recover (which it usually does), you may decide to hold onto your stocks and ride out the waves.
Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.
