How bad is China's debt?
Public sector debt was RMB 30.3 trillion (53.2% of GDP) while private sector debt (including both household and non-financial corporate sector) amounted to RMB 103.5 trillion (181.9% of GDP).
China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States. It remains lower than Japan, the world's most indebted leading economy, but some experts say the concern is that China's debt has surged at the sort of pace that usually leads to a financial bust and economic slump.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
The most immediate effect would be an increase in interest rates on Treasuries since selling so many at once would artificially depress their prices in the bond market; thus increasing their yields.
A sizeable sell-off of Treasury securities by China would almost certainly lead to an appreciation of China's currency and depreciation of the dollar. This is more likely to help the United States than to hurt us, contrary to the claims of many observers.
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
Will the US ever get out of debt?
Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.
Public debt in Russia averaged 15.4% of GDP in the decade to 2022, below the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe. Public debt in Russia was 18.9% of GDP in 2022.
If the country had no debt then they could afford to defend themselves in wars, or afford to lend money to other countries (if they wanted to) which the other countries would appreciate. Not being in debt is not the same thing as having money.
China's debt has risen dramatically in the past decade, largely the result of credit fed to state-owned enterprises in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations. With China's trend growth rate notably lower now than it was, it leaves a burden over the long haul.
Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value. It's like planting someone at an auction to drive up your prices.
Russia divested from all US bond instruments, the only debts the Federal government has, and still owes the US and other investors nearly 300 billion US Dollars. The national debt in Russia was forecast to increase between 2023 and 2028 by in total 16.1 billion U.S.
China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.
Is China in a debt crisis?
China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023.
While Chinese ownership of U.S. land has been a hot topic among lawmakers — even becoming the center of a Montana Senate race this year — China only had a stake in 383,935 acres of U.S. land as of 2021, which is less than 1% of all foreign-held land.
| Country | Economy |
|---|---|
| United States | $25.347 trillion |
| China | $19.91 trillion |
| Japan | $5.396 trillion |
| Germany | $4.55 trillion |
In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.
So far in 2024, China's gold reserves have increased by 22t. And during the past 16 months the PBoC has reported total gold purchases amounting to 309t.
