What would happen if China called in U.S. debt?
If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
The IMF expects U.S. government debt to be 133.9% of annual gross domestic product in 2029, up from 122.1% in 2023. And it expects China's debt to rise to 110.1% of GDP by the same year from 83.6%.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
After adjusting for Belgium, China is estimated to have sold only about $40 billion in Treasuries over the last 18 months (it bought around $40 billion in 2022, and reduced its holdings by around $80 billion in the first 6 months of 2023 – with most of reduction coming in January 2023).
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
As a result, totals from January 2023 are lower than reported. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).
Why does China own so much of America's federal debt? America has a current account deficit, mainly due to a trade deficit with China. This means that the American demand for yuan is increasing at a faster rate than the Chinese demand for dollars.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value. It's like planting someone at an auction to drive up your prices.
What country is not in debt?
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
No, Bank of America isn't owned by China. BofA is an American multinational investment bank that has a partnership with China Construction Bank. In 2011 they decided to sell about half of their stake (about 13.1 billion) in the Chinese company.
China's economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation.
China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.
Russia divested from all US bond instruments, the only debts the Federal government has, and still owes the US and other investors nearly 300 billion US Dollars. The national debt in Russia was forecast to increase between 2023 and 2028 by in total 16.1 billion U.S.
Foreign governments who have purchased U.S. treasuries include China, Japan, Brazil, Ireland, the U.K. and others. China represents 29 percent of all treasuries issued to other countries, which corresponds to $1.18 trillion. Japan holds the equivalent of $1.03 trillion in treasuries.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.
While Chinese ownership of U.S. land has been a hot topic among lawmakers — even becoming the center of a Montana Senate race this year — China only had a stake in 383,935 acres of U.S. land as of 2021, which is less than 1% of all foreign-held land.
Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.
What is one real concern about a large national debt?
A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future. Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth.
On the other hand, Mexico holds about $34B of US debt. So if we were to make a balance, Mexico owes the US $134B, more or less, or about 8% of what it makes in a year.
These are large multinational companies like Smithfield Foods, Syngenta, or the Walton International Group, which are all either owned by another Chinese company or Chinese investors.
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.
According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.
