Is China in a debt crisis?
China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China's
China's economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation. How did the world's second-largest economy get into such a mess?
Though China owns a large amount of U.S. debt, it isn't the United States's largest creditor. The greatest amount of U.S. debt is owned by the U.S. government, while the largest foreign creditor is Japan. China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar.
China is experiencing its longest deflationary run since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Consumer prices fell in January for a fourth straight month and declines look likely to extend into 2024.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
In a report released on Friday, the global financial policy body – also known as the IMF – projected China's economic growth would drop to 4.6% this year, down from its 5.2% growth in 2023, and fall further to 3.4% by 2028.
The counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts emanating from the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party are a grave threat to the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States. Confronting this threat is the FBI's top counterintelligence priority.
China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
Will China overtake US?
Some analysts even argue that China's economy may never surpass that of the United States. When considering further the vast soft power and geopolitical advantages the United States holds over China, it appears unlikely that China will displace the United States as a leading global power in the foreseeable future.
“China's economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression,” Yardeni wrote. “That's bad news for China's people and for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices.”
Sales have fallen amid homebuyer concerns that developers lack sufficient financing to complete projects and that prices will decline in the future. At the same time, key property sector vulnerabilities have yet to be addressed, pointing to ongoing risks to sustainability.
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.
In fact, Estonia is not only a successful country without hardly any debt, but also one of the wealthiest. Additionally, its long-term growth trajectory remains very strong. With just under a million and a half inhabitants, and no natural resources, Estonia was part of the Soviet Union until 1991.
In several peak years, the economy grew more than 13 percent. Per capita income has nearly quadrupled in the last 15 years, and a few analysts are even predicting that the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the United States in about 20 years.
Previous estimates have ranged from 65 million to 80 million vacant housing units in China. He's remarks suggest even these numbers are an underestimate. Xi Jinping's regime looks paralysed in the face of this crisis.
The world's second-largest economy is still contending from the setbacks of the COVID-19 pandemic, among other shocks, dogged by weakness in the property sector and in global demand for China's exports, high debt levels and wavering consumer confidence.
Among those who name China as the greatest threat facing the U.S., nearly all see China as posing at least a fair amount of threat to both America's economy and its national security. In fact, around three-quarters say China poses a great deal of threat to both.
What year will China overtake the US economy?
Consistent with these observations, we show that the timing of China's overtaking will be determined by the pace of US and Chinese nominal GDP growth and moves in the bilateral exchange rate. For a range of plausible assumptions, we find that overtaking occurs during the 2030s, most likely in the middle of the decade.
Russia divested from all US bond instruments, the only debts the Federal government has, and still owes the US and other investors nearly 300 billion US Dollars. The national debt in Russia was forecast to increase between 2023 and 2028 by in total 16.1 billion U.S.
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
| Luxembourg | $318,200,000,000 |
| Switzerland | $290,500,000,000 |
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
The United States supported China's entrance into the World Trade Organization at the turn of the millennium, which led to an export boom of Chinese goods into the U.S. China ended up parking much of its sales in U.S. Treasurys, CNN reported, because of their perceived safety as an investment.
